Brynjolfsson's ADP dataset, extended to April 2026, shows AI eliminating early-career positions at 3.8% annually — widening four years in
Brynjolfsson and ADP Research extended the Canaries dataset to April 2026 — 4.6 million workers across 730 occupations — and employment in AI-exposed roles for workers ages 22–25 is now shrinking at 3.8% annually, widening ~0.5 percentage points per month with no reversal across four years. The pattern concentrates in occupations where AI automates tasks outright — summarizing, scheduling, formatting — rather than augmenting human judgment; which side of that line an occupation falls on now predicts whether early-career hiring is growing or contracting. Among economists, the question has shifted from 'is this real?' to 'how fast?' — Brynjolfsson and Acemoglu are now sparring on magnitude and timeline, not on AI's transformative impact.
Source: fortune.com ↗
Whatever it is, it's not going away.
Why this matters
- → Early-career hiring collapsing 3.8% annually in AI-exposed roles, widening for four years.
- → AI automates entry-level tasks (summarizing, scheduling) before senior-level work requiring judgment.
- → Debate among economists shifted from 'if' to 'how fast' AI transforms labor.